Covid-19 hospitalizations are seeing a significant increase across much of the United States for the first time this year. This surge coincides with students returning to school and precedes the arrival of updated Covid-19 shots in pharmacies for a fall vaccination campaign.
New hospital admissions have risen by approximately 16% in the U.S. over the past week, continuing an upward trajectory that began in late July, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Moreover, new hospitalizations surged by more than 30% in states including Arkansas, Colorado, Indiana, Kansas, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, and Wyoming during the same period.
This late summer spike in Covid-19 cases is a stark departure from a relatively quiet year marked by declining hospitalizations and deaths since January. Health experts, including Dr. Deborah Birx, former White House coronavirus response coordinator, have expressed concerns about the nation’s complacency and lack of vigilance, despite the virus following a predictable seasonal pattern.
The U.S. is preparing to roll out updated shots from Pfizer, Moderna, and Novavax later this month for a fall vaccination campaign. However, the challenge lies in keeping up with a fast-evolving virus. These vaccines were designed to target a variant, XBB.1.5, that is no longer dominant, according to Birx. She argued that these vaccines should have been released earlier to combat the predicted summer wave and suggested that the U.S. should already be developing new shots targeting the emerging BA.2.86 variant.
Studies from China initially raised concerns about BA.2.86’s ability to evade immunity conferred by vaccination or previous infection due to a high number of mutations. However, subsequent studies have provided more encouraging data. Moderna, for instance, reported that its updated shot generated a strong immune response against BA.2.86 in a clinical trial.
Dr. Anthony Fauci believes that, despite the rise in Covid-19 transmission, the number of hospitalizations and deaths remains low due to a substantial level of community-level protection from vaccination and prior infections. Fauci anticipates that even with a surge in infections, the U.S. is unlikely to witness the same magnitude of hospitalizations and deaths seen in previous waves.
However, the increase in Covid-19 cases is already causing disruptions, with some school districts in Kentucky and Texas canceling classes due to a surge in respiratory illnesses. Additionally, the virus recently affected the White House, with First Lady Jill Biden testing positive for Covid-19 this week, albeit with mild symptoms.
Dr. Birx criticized the CDC’s decision to stop tracking Covid-19 cases after the public health emergency ended and relying primarily on hospitalization data for monitoring the virus’s spread. She emphasized that by the time hospitalizations become apparent in an area, the virus has already been circulating for several weeks. Birx predicts that the U.S. should anticipate a winter surge in late December or early January, and preparations for vaccines should be underway to address this wave.
